The Dirty Dozen, Week 10 Newsletter
2024 Fantasy Football Season
Weekly Observations
Week 10 wraps up interdivision play as we all look forward to division play to finalize playoff seeding and determine the all-important division winners, who earn a golden keeper for next year. Looking back at interdivision play, the North division handled the South Division with both CB and Hose going 5-0 over the last 5 weeks. The North division as a whole had a 20-10 record against the South division with Tick leading the way in the South division going 3-2 and being the only team from the South division with a winning record over the North division.
My 3 takeaways from Week 10:
On Sunday Bo Nix (20.1 points) logged his 4th 20+ fantasy point game of the season and has scored more than 15 fantasy points in 5 out of his last 6 games. Nix finished Week 10 as QB10 and is also QB10 through the first 10 weeks of the season and only behind Jayden Daniels (8.58 points) when compared to the other 1st round rookie QBs from the 2024 draft class. What’s really impressive to me is that Nix has had 200+ passing yards on 30 or more pass attempts in 4 out of his last 5 games, proving that he has starting QB fantasy value given that he can also be a weapon using his legs. This is all even more impressive when Nix was QB20 by ESPN ADP and that the Broncos only have one other offensive player that is averaging more than 10 fantasy points a game, that player being Courtland Sutton (16.0 points) who is averaging 10.1 fantasy points and is all the way down at WR35 based on average points.
Speaking of rookie QBs, Caleb Williams (6.3 points) has been the opposite of impressive the past three weeks, not having a single game with more than 10 fantasy points. Williams showed us his number one overall draft pick potential in Weeks 3 - 6 when he averaged 24.75 fantasy points over those weeks. However, what is more concerning is in the other 5 games Williams has played, he’s averaging 8 fantasy points, with a high of 9.94 fantasy points in Week 8. Williams’ up and down performance this year has also impacted the WRs in Chicago as DJ Moore (4.2 points) leads the WR group with a 8.8 fantasy point average on the year. Keenan Allen (6.9 points) is tied with Rome Odunze (3.8 points) both averaging 7.0 fantasy points a game. Rewind one year, Moore and Allen averaged 14.0 and 17.5 fantasy points a game. Williams’ struggles make it difficult to keep these WR as lineup locks until something changes.
From rookie QBs to the oldest quarterback in the league, Aaron Rodgers (4.04 points) looks like he stayed around a year too many. This week, Rodgers put up his fewest passing yards of the year and did not throw a touchdown for the second time this season, resulting in his worst fantasy performance of the year. There’s not an offense in the league that confuses me more than the Jets, both Garret Wilson (6.6 points) and Davante Adams (6.1 points) finished with less than 10 fantasy points, which is the third time since being traded to the Jets that Adams has done so. Breece Hall (10.3 points) was RB8 per ESPN ADP, but he had his 3rd straight game being outside of the top 10 fantasy RBs and the 7th time this season. I know a couple weeks ago I was confident in starting all four of these guys regardless of the team being a dumpster fire, and I’ll stick with that for now given their need to score points to stay in games, but I feel a bit of my confidence wavering.
Jerry Jones
I’m not here to pick on the Dallas Cowboys, there are plenty of people that will do that given how bad they are right now. But my favorite thing I saw all weekend was Jerry Jones giving an astronomy lesson in his post-game interview and I felt like everyone needed to hear it:
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Best & Worst
Looking at the players that scored the most points above their projection by position in Week 10:
QB Joe Burrow, Forsaken Ones: 41.72 points; 18.12 points above projection
RB Bijan Robinson, My Chubb Makes U Waddle: 27.9 points; 19.5 points above projection
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CB Alt: 49.9 points; 17.7 points above projection
TE Tanner Hudson, Waivers: 13.3 points; 10.8 points above projection
The disappointments of the week, guys who missed their projection by position the most in Week 10:
QB Cooper Rush, Noami Lana: -2.0 points; 16.2 points below projection
RB Saquon Barkley, Williams you be my Nabers?: 8.3 points; 10.6 points below projection
WR Justin Jefferson, My Chubb Makes U Waddle: 7.3 points; 10.2 points below projection
TE Dalton Kincaid, Alabama Replacements: 3.4 points; 6.6 points below projection
Injuries
Week 10 was light on the injury front for fantasy relevant players, but some could shake up RB touches for teams going forward:
RB Miles Sanders - Injured his ankle in the second quarter and was carted off the field
RB Tank Bigsby - Left in the first quarter with an ankle injury and did not return
RB Aaron Jones - Was carted off the field with a chest injury in the fourth quarter, but did return later in the fourth quarter
TE Dalton Kincaid - Left the game with an injury to his left knee in a brace
Week 10 Power Rankings
There was not a lot of movement in the power rankings this week, but there was some tightening at the top with the power score spread between 1st & 2nd, shrinking to a 0.5 point lead down from 3 points last week. The top four teams are only separated by 8 points when it was a 13 point difference last week. The middle of the pack stays tight with a 4 point swing between spots 4 & 8. And not to forget about spots 8 - 12, the difference in power score is only 10 points down from 16 points last week. As we head back into division play and the run up to the playoffs, everything is getting a little bit closer.
Week 10 Highlights
I was most looking forward to seeing the meme machine Will Levis (23.1 points) return to action this weekend after missing the past couple of weeks due to injury, but he shockingly played well and didn’t produce any memes this week. So, we must look elsewhere, thank you interim HC of the Saints Darren Rizzi:
Week 11 Preview
Matchup of the Week
The first week back in division play and CB Alt goes up against Meg for the South Division lead. Both of these teams are 2-3 in their last 5 games, so this head to head matchup will go a long way in determining the eventual division winner.
