The Dirty Dozen, Week 3 Newsletter
2024 Fantasy Football Season
Weekly Observations
The 5 most added players in ESPN fantasy leagues before the Week 3 games were Derek Carr (9.98 points), Carson Steele (7.9 points), Buccaneers D/ST (5.0 points), Quentin Johnston (11.4 points), and Hunter Henry (1.9 points). The guy who just missed the top 5 was Jauan Jennings, who finished as WR1, by far, putting up 41.0 points in the absence of CMC, Kittle, and Deebo. This is where I pat myself on the back for picking him up off waivers and starting him in both of my fantasy leagues this week! Jennings did all of that in a loss to the Rams, in what was really a great game. Matthew Stafford (14.84 points) carried the Rams all day with Puka and Kupp still injured.
My 3 takeaways from Week 3:
Can we get Malik Nabers (24.2 points) on a team that has a good QB? Nabers finished as WR3 in Week 3 and would have been WR2 if not for Jauan Jennings crazy day. Nabers followed up his Week 2 WR3 performance once again having double digit targets. He leads the NFL in targets, is tied for 1st in receiving TDs, is 2nd in receptions, and 5th in receiving yards through 3 weeks. Nabers is also WR1 through the first three weeks, even with Daniel Jones (23.44 points) being his QB. Even with this handicap, I don’t see Nabers slowing down soon given his 37.8% target share, which leads the league.
In a season where passing in down in favor of rushing, there are a couple of starting RBs that are already getting some pressure from their backups. For the second week in a row Rachaad White (6.0 points) has scored single digit points and has yet to get a touchdown. I have stayed high on White in the past because his snap share has been one of the best in the league (78% snap share in 2023, 4th highest among RBs). Bucky Irving (9.9 points) the 2024 4th round draft pick has eaten into that snap share in 2024 with the split being about 70/30 in favor of White. While that may not seem like much of a drop, what’s telling is that Irving is getting a touch on 55% of his snaps while White is getting a touch on only 36% of his snaps. On top of that, Irving has been much more efficient with his touches than White. Irving is averaging 6.1 yards per touch while White is only averaging 3.8 yards per touch (2.1 yards per carry). If Irving’s efficiency continues to outpace White’s, Irving will become the lead back in Tampa Bay. Another RB split to watch is Kenneth Walker III (injured) and Zack Charbonnet (24.2 points) after Charbonnet put up his 3rd straight double-digit fantasy points week.
I am not a believer in Anthony Richardson (5.08 points). Pre-draft rankings had Richardson either a top 5 QB or just barely outside the top-5 depending on where you looked. This ranking was mostly based on Richardson’s upside due to his amazing arm talent and his ability to run, which could create big plays. While he has shown the ability to create big plays, he’s also shown an inability to make the routine plays. Richardson has a 0.5 TD to INT ratio, meaning he’s thrown twice as many INTs as TDs. Add in his one rushing TD and his ratio is 0.67, not great. He is completing under 50% of his passes, the only QB who has started all 3 games to have a completion % under 50%. Through 3 weeks Richardson has put up 47.02 points and is QB18, below guys like Sam Darnold (QB2 - 73.78 points), Derek Carr (QB7 - 63.1 points), and Daniel Jones (QB16 - 50.7 points).
Best & Worst
Looking at the players that scored the most points above their projection by position in Week 3:
QB Andy Dalton, Show Me The Penix: 30.56 points; 16.96 points above projection
RB Saquon Barkley, Williams you be my Nabers?: 31.6 points; 16.2 points above projection
WR Jauan Jennings, Show Me The Penix: 41.0 points; 31.9 points above projection
TE Cole Kmet, Waivers: 20.7 points; 15.2 points above projection
The disappointments of the week, guys who missed their projection by position the most in Week 3:
QB Anthony Richardson, Goff My Lawn!: 5.08 points; 14.02 points below projection
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Williams you be my Nabers?: 0.3 points; 13.7 points below projection
WR Rashid Shaheed, You Got a Purdy Mouth: 0.0 points; 10.9 points below projection
TE Mark Andrews, Alabama Replacements: 0.0 points; 8.8 points below projection
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Injuries
The only thing more reliable than the Jaguars being a disappointment is injuries. There’s already been what seems to be a crazy number of injuries to starters and Week 3 wasn’t much different.
Some of the notable injuries in Week 3 were:
QB Justin Herbert: Was injured in Week 2, not 100% going into Week 3 and got hurt again
QB Skylar Thompson: Was filling in for Hawk Tua-h, next up at QB for Miami is…Time Boyle
RB Austin Ekeler: Left the game with a concussion
WR DeVonta Smith: Eagles are already down AJ Brown, Smith was evaluated for a concussion
TE Sam LaPorta: Left the game with an ankle sprain, considered day-to-day
TE Trey McBride: Left the game and is in concussion protocol
TE George Kittle: Surprise inactive with a hamstring injury
Week 3 Power Rankings
After Week 3, Hose Alt sits on top of the power rankings after moving up 2 spots. Sadly for Flash, his team drops 2 spots in back-to-back weeks and finds himself in the basement of the rankings.
Week 3 Highlights
The thing I look forward to the most each week is Will Levis one-upping his ridiculous turnovers. Here’s this week’s, plus some of the other best tweets I saw during the Week 3 Sunday games:
Week 4 Preview
Matchup of the Week
In Week 4’s only matchup of two teams with winning records, NoPair looks to extend his win streak to 3 while CB tries to get back on track after his first loss of the season in Week 3. Currently the line is in CB’s favor at -16.3, but NoPair will look for another big game from DK Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers.
